December 4th, 2009
Will Sri Lanka go for a possible win in this match? At the end of the third day of the Mumbai test they are 322 behind with two full days remaining. Of course saving this game will be the first priority and I know for a session or two they will first look to ensure that. But whether they will be just satisfied with that will tell us how far they are ready to go to get to the top of the international rankings.
In the recent years both India and Sri Lanka have won a lot of matches, they have even won abroad and in statistical terms there isn’t much to separate them. India gets more visibility probably because they have won more at places like Perth, Leeds, Johannesburg and Jamaica, and may be another reason is India’s fierce rivalry with Australia in the last decade.
(Source: Cricinfo Statsguru) In the last 10 years Sri Lanka have won 44 of their 96, India won 39 of 105. In the last 5 years it’s 23 of 45 and 21 of 53 respectively. India’s record is better ‘away from home’ - India has won 11 of their 29 matches abroad whereas Sri Lanka have won 7 of their 23. But consider that some of these matches were played against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe and we realize that the overall record is not massively different, at least statistically. In terms of the quality of the opposition India has a better records in last 5 years where they have won at least one match in each away series except the one in Pakistan in 2006.
Where these teams are also similar is the apparent lack of the intent to go for it when there is a choice. I think in the third test in New Zealand Dhoni was criticized for not declaring early enough to account for rain to force a result. The situation was a little different then though as India was already leading and so even with the draw India won the series. Here Sri Lanka faces an entirely different situation - they have never won a test match in India. So if they lose or draw this it will be no different anyway. But if they are able to win it it will be a big thing. Of course there will be criticism but the rewards of success are much bigger for them if they win.
The three scenarios appear to be like this, in the sequence of likelihood:
India win: This is where either India gets them for under 333 or just over it and achieve it. India has enough time to do this.
Draw: For this to happen Sri Lanka needs to either bat out the whole time, or score enough runs by the time they are all out that India can’t get those in the remaining overs. So they need either bat very long for whatever no of runs or bat really fast and get more than 500.
Sri Lanka win: For this Lanka needs to bat at least 4 sessions and that too with a high run rate. That would mean they might get 400+ by that time and have a chance to bowl at India on the fifth day pitch. But it’s a delicate balance as if they declare too defensively they will neither leave India enough overs to get those runs nor for them to get India out. If they need to have about 60 overs for a chance they need to make around 510 runs in 120 overs. Not entirely impossible but very difficult - and then you add a chance that India can still get those runs in 60 overs. As we have seen most of the times both India and Sri Lanka seem content to declare only when they know they won’t lose.
But Sri Lanka have in front of them an opportunity to show that they can take these risks in their pursuit of being the no 1 team. If they go for it, apart from other things what it will also mean is that this match will get very interesting to watch!
Posted in cricket, Australia, India, Ganguly, Dravid, West Indies, Dhoni, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Kumble | No Comments »
December 1st, 2009
Although Sachin has completed 20 years in international cricket, I hope and believe he still has a few more left and this is not quite the time to write summaries of his career. There are many records that he has established or broken already. But it makes me wonder how people can say “he has broken all batting records”, as clearly there are many obvious ones that he is yet to break or achieve. So instead of going over his stats so far I am trying to highlight the things we fans want him to do.
There is a reason for that. Tendulkar had a lean patch starting somewhere in 2004 that lasted till the World Cup of 2007. He did score a few hundreds during this time but never looked like the Tendulkar we knew. People, even players who are supposed to know about lean patches, started writing Tendulkar off. But then he came back to form in the tour of Ireland and England of 2007. Since then mostly he has been in great touch and has been even doing things he hasn’t done much before - like staying unbeaten in a big chase of fourth innings to win India a match, like he did in December 2008 against England at Chennai. So what fun it would be if he starts breaking those other records that are not in his list yet!
The record that comes to mind immediately is a test triple hundred! But before we go there, Tendulkar definitely has had many attacking innings before - I am listing three that come to my mind and I chose these three because they represent three different match situations:
Against South Africa at Bloemfontein, 2000 - India were 68/4 when Tendulkar and debutant Sehwag came together for a 220 run partnership in just 47 overs. Tendulkar scored 155 off just 184 balls. Many teams have exploited such situations to win games, but India wasn’t quite there yet there then. There was hardly any other substantial score from anybody else in both the innings and our bowling’s inability to restrict South Africa prevented India from winning or saving the game. Here is the YouTube link.
Against Australia at Chennai, 1998 - India had conceded a lead in the first innings which was already wiped out when Tendulkar came to bat in second innings. But the match was still open and Warne’s reputation was still intact. Some 60 overs later Warne had been taken for 122 runs and India set a “historical” target of 348 runs to Australia (in the tied test of 1987 Australia had set India the same target at Chennai) and India won the match.
Against England at Leeds, 2002 - Tendulkar came to bat at a healthy 185/2 but what was more important was it 74 overs were alredy bowled in which Bangar and Dravid had seen through the most dangerous period of the match. Then Tendulkar and Ganguly put together a 249 run stand in just 60 overs with both going on total attack in the later part of that partnership. India scored 628 and won the game as well. Here is the YouTube link.
So there are many matches where Tendulkar has played attacking but a huge double/triple hundred while playing like that has been missing. I know there are exceptions, but most of Tendulkar’s great centuries are scores around 150. As far as I remember none of his double centuries were very interesting to watch. He hasn’t scored even a big attacking double century yet.
A triple hundred itself doesn’t seem to be a measure of greatness, but many great batsmen of the current generation have them - Sehwag, (DPMD) Jayawardene, Jayasuriya, Gayle, Younis Khan. Then there are Kallis, Ponting, Dravid, Mohammand Yusuf, Graeme Smith, Laxman who have none.
I guess in general terms Tendulkar hasn’t had a huge attacking innings and it will be fantastic to see him do that!
Posted in cricket, Australia, India, Tendulkar, Ganguly, Dravid, Lara, Dhoni, England, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Sehwag, Ponting, Ireland, Laxman | No Comments »
November 18th, 2009
In the first test against Sri Lanka at Ahmedabad, looks like when India bat again they will face a lead of around 200-250 runs with somewhere around 150 overs remaining in the match.
It’s quite known how India generally gives up when faced with a big target in the fourth innings. Recent exceptions like Chennai 2008 are there of course, but I wanted to find out how the team has performed in the situations where it’s batting third against a big lead. So after going over last 10 years records at Cricinfo Statsguru here is what I notice:
Of the experienced players, Sehwag, Dravid, Tendulkar and Laxman average 36.54, 36.52, 45.28 and 45.95 respectively in such innings. Laxman has 2 and Sehwag, Tendulkar and Dravid has one centuries in such situations.
In each case some of these scores do not reflect their corresponding first innings scores which were much bigger. I am not sure that should matter. In general we have seen this tendency in most Indian players to not make two consecutive big scores (for example except Dravid doing it two times, nobody else in the current team has scored two centuries in a test)
For Dravid and Laxman some of these scores are when they had opened the innings
Of the younger generation, Gambhir, Yuvraj and Dhoni have been in such situations only twice so far. Except a 69 from Dhoni in one case there are no big innings from any of them so far.
In the last 10 years India ended up in this situation (batting against a big lead in second) 17 times of these 12 times they lost the match, drew it 4 times and won once. But overall there have been very few of these situations in the last 5 years - meaning whenever India batted first they either took a lead or did not concede a big one (won 11 of 26 matches batting first in last 5 years)
Now some of the memorable performances in recent years in such situations:
Nottingham 2002. India lost the earlier test at Lords and was trailing in the second test here by 260 runs. At this point the series turnaround began - Dravid scored 115, Tendulkar 92 and Ganguly 99. The match was drawn. But these three took it further in the next test at Leeds -all three scored centuries and India won that match to level the series.
Kolkata 2002-03. It was a dead rubber as India had already won the series. But in the third test India was trailing by about 140 with two full days to go. Then Tendulkar (176) and Laxman (154) came together to save India.
Adelaide 2007-08. After the resurgence at Perth in the earlier test India scored 526 in the first innings here. But late on the fourth day they could have collapsed to give Australia another chance. Sehwag hadn’t scored a century in the second innings before, but here he scored 151 and more importantly played 236 balls to shut Australia out of the match.
Sydney 1999-00. Laxman gave Australia a glimpse of things to come by scoring 167 in just 198 balls with 27 fours.
Posted in cricket, Australia, India, Tendulkar, Ganguly, Dravid, West Indies, Dhoni, England, Sri Lanka, Sehwag, Yuvraj Singh, Laxman | 1 Comment »